[stevepa]

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Pushing seems like the worst possible move here. Is ZJ loose enough to where he's re-raising AK/AQ/AJ/JJ/TT/99 in the second hand of the tourney, with position, against an UTG raiser and a good solid caller? The fact that he's in position makes it even more likely he has a good hand.


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I don't know how loose he is but I assume he's quite aggressive. He also will know that there's a lot of loose play early in these, so he doesn't necessarily need AA/KK/AK.

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Why would he want to break his chances at winning a huge pot with JJ-99 by re-raising and seeing UTG push allin over the top?

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It avoids a potentially very difficult decision in pots where he flops an overpair, he thinks he has the best hand, he may get a better hand to fold later (eg TT/JJ on an A or K high flop). I don't know but aren't those all possible?

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The advice in this thread is shockingly bad. I don't know how ZJ plays, but if he is at all sane, he has AA-QQ/AK, with heavy weight given to AA-KK.

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Note that I'm only a 1.5-1 underdog vs AA-KK, AK and I'm getting 1.27-1, so even if that is his entire range it's not THAT bad. ChipEV = 2/5*1230 + 3/5*(-955) = -81.
If he folds AK to my push, then 16 times I win 375 (145+145+45+15+10) and 12 times he calls with AA/KK. Of those 12, I win 1230 chips ~2.2 times and lose 955 chips ~9.8 times. So chipEV = 16/28*375 + 2.2/28*1230 - 9.8/28*955 = -21. This range seems like the worst case scenario to me. If you add anymore hands, the push is profitable. (That's not to say it's the best play).

Steve