[elysium]

hi mike
you are very close to being a 60% favorite if called and the conditions are ok. but remember, when you make a value bet, you must have a fairly solid image. if you've been betting under-pairs strongly heads up, then you check it down here. if you have been showing down the goods, but you're up against a steamer, strongly consider checking it dowm. your image and the table has to be on a level keel and conservative-ish, just like it needs to be before bluffing, in order to value bet in these marginal situations. it is not just getting money into the pot. one component of a value bet is some realistic possibility of getting the fold, but also, and just as importantly, not being raised. if you wouldn't run a total bluff because of the conditions, then don't value bet.

it looks like you're good here. but many players tend to value bet because they have a tiny lead and want to get more money in the pot, not considering their image or the table. that's wrong because value betting is not strategically betting to fold out middle pairs higher than yours, hands that may fold. value betting is done with only a slim chance of getting a fold and a more likely chance of getting called by lesser hands. obviously, if your opponent is going to fold all hands that you beat, and only call with better hands, value betting is wrong. you're then risking an avoidable raise. here mike, he looks K high to me and i think he will call. he may have 22, 33, but he also may have middle pair. there is a slim chance that he will fold it if bluffing conditions exist, and as long as you are perceived as solid, go for it. the great majority of the time, you won't have all these factors, and therefore you should usually check it down.