[Mr_J]

"Playing poker for the past 3 years helps a lot there."

The swings in sportsbetting are much, much bigger.

"I'll be betting at Hollywood which offers -107 on all their bets"

Very silly. In the longrun bonuses, low vig, free points, line shopping etc will probally be worth just as much as what your picks. You're leaving ALOT of money on the table by using just 1 book. The extra EV you make from the other stuff also acts as a buffer against overbetting.

"One of the first things I set out to look for is a system that has been working for the past 3-5 years."

Sounds like you used the same data, and if you did then your system isn't worth anything. When you test your system, you can't use the same data as you used to develop it. If you develop a system off the '03-'04 season, you can't include that data in your tests. So, what seasons did you use to develop your systems, and what seasons did you test over to see if the system worked?