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Old 08-23-2005, 11:42 AM
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Default Re: Results

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Do I have a leak here?

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maybe we can both learn from this hand, but IMO based on your read, i don't understand what the % of times you have to catch a bluff here has to do with anything.

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Maybe bad thinking on my part, I don't know. I keep thinking about the advice I've seen in Sklansky and Miller's material about how it is a "catastrophe" when you fold a winning hand in a big pot, but it is a "small mistake" when you lose one bet. I think that has led to me virtually always calling one bet when there are 10 BB or more (or maybe even >8). So, even when I may not have "good reason" to believe I'm against a bluff, I will call in this situation, particularly when there is some logical scenario in which I am facing a river bluff.

Take this hand, for example. I agree that it makes little sense to believe he was bluffing on the river. However, I have seen a lot of crazy plays online in SS. And I had not seen this player much at all, so I didn't know what he was capable of doing. I thought it was possible he was being loose on the flop and aggressive on the flop/turn with something like A8s, K8s, or Q8s -- an unlikely possibility; I thought he had a Jack or Ten in his hand. It was also possible, but again unlikely, that he was on a flush draw and being very aggressive or even maniacal -- again, I wasn't confident about my read at all.

So, with all that being said, I thought it was unlikely and would make "little sense" that I would be ahead. However, I could at least see a logical scenario in which I would be ahead (with the hands I mentioned above), and that, based on this, I had a 10% chance to win (maybe this in itself was bad judgment). BUT, I didn't want to commit the cardinal sin of folding a winning hand in a large pot.

Please, let me know if I'm going about this all wrong.

Also, I really can't answer the rest of your questions about what this player was capable of doing. I just didn't know.
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