Re: 99
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I fold this preflop every time. It seems like a very easy fold to me, am I missing something? Playing for set value against 4 players in a capped pot. You need to make up ~26SB when you hit. And since we have a raise, 3-bet and a cap already the chances that someone hits a bigger set is larger.
Calling the river seems fine to me. If your read on MP2 really is fish (LP) betting would be pretty bad IMO.
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Nick I am confussed on the making up 26sb part. Hero is getting 5/1 on his pre flop call how does he have to make up 26sb?
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Lets assume UTG calls 50% of the time, then the odds we're getting to call is 16.5:4. The odds against making a set is 1:7.5 and the chance of hitting it and that it holds up about 1:10. Important to notice is that 16.5:4 isn't the same thing as 4.25:1. You need to make a lot of more bets postflop getting 16.5:4. To calculate how many bets you need to make multiply 1:10 with 4 (the number of bets you need to put in the pot). You get 4:40. Then substract 16.5 from 40 and you get 23.5. You need to make 23.5SB postflop when you hit your set. 26SB was a pretty quick estimation from my part, and not a very accurate one.
To put these numbers in some kind of context the final pot you win need to be:
16.5SB + 4SB = 20.5SB (preflop)
23.5SB + ~8SB = 31.5 (postflop)
Total: 52SB
On 3/6 which I usually play that would equal 156$. I know this is a poor comparision, but the biggest pot I've ever won was 161$, 2nd biggest 146$. I find it hard to assume a average pot on 156$ just because of heavy preflop aggression.
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I am figuring UTG poster and BB are folding and everyone else is calling. Crunchy is in the SB 1/2 bet blind structure. 17.5/3.5 on the call and how did you come up with 10/1? I agree there are times he hits his set and still loses just wanting to know how you came up with this number.
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