[Justin A]

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I don't like your turn check. You've got the best hand a good majority of the time with that action and you'll get value from other pocket pairs.

I think you should raise the river and hope UTG+1 calls two cold with his pocket pair.

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What are you putting MP2 on. Hero said he was "very lag", does that mean its impossible for him to cold call twice with a raggy ace? I'd be considering two things on the turn, before deciding to bet. The first is how likely I think it is that MP2 has some junky ace (wouldn't we expect him to 3 bet PF with a good one, or with a pocket pair?) and whether or not I think he was "slowplaying" on the flop, and is trying to check raise me on the turn.

Secondly, and related to the first, can I fold to a c/r? If not, because this guy is so lag, i like the check. If I had JJ, it'd be different, but there aren't any river cards i've really all that scared of here.

Raising the river seems equally risky. The TAG isn't calling 2 with most hands (especially since our turn check screams MONSTER), and is LAG is bluffing he'll fold.

What am I missing?

lf

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The way the action played out it's very unlikely that either opponent has an ace. We can fairly safely put UTG1 on TT-QQ, and since it was UTG1 that bet the flop, it's very unlikely that MP2 would check the turn after he checks if he did have an ace.

That's also why I like the river raise. UTG1 will have a very tough time laying down QQ or JJ even for two bets on that river.