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Old 08-21-2005, 03:58 PM
LearnedfromTV LearnedfromTV is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Van down by the river
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Default Choosing bet size in key situations (Long)

Thanks adanthar and everyone else for the replies. i want to post a few more of my thoughts on this hand, because I think this is an important hand for my development and I want to get as much feedback as possible. Replying to adanthar because his comments about bet size are relevant to what i have been thinking about.

Before I get into the main idea of my post, here's something about my philosophy in these situations. A few people based parts of their comments (usually when saying push or fold preflop or on the flop) on the idea that I shouldn't want to get caught in a tricky spot against another big stack. I understand this point of view and am not going to go looking for chances to tangle with a big stack, but I am not afraid of going bust in this kind of spot if I play the hand such that the times I'm ahead I double through him or extract the maximum. Play to win, in other words, even if the spot that gets you the chips is tough. What I don't want to do is play foolishly versus his range of hands and encourage him to put his chips in only when he is ahead. More on that idea a couple paragraphs down.

Ok, this is getting long already and it's going to get longer, so here goes. My first set of bet sizing thoughts relate to stack size, which is the area on which adanthar commented. First, the size of a preflop raise has a ripple effect on the rest of the hand. Had I raised to 400 instead of 600, his reraise would have been smaller, the pot would have been smaller. By the time we get to the flop and turn, where pot size relative to stack size becomes important, the die is already cast, determined by the preflop action. The key is to realize what kind of a pot you are creating with a given preflop raise. In this case, I made my raise to 600 because the big stack was in the BB. Thinking he would be more likely to defend and with TT vulnerable, I wanted to charge him more to play. I didn't think at all about what kind of stack size/pot size situation we would be in if he reraised and I should have. On the flop, I have 4700 behind and a T2275 pot. This ends up being an awkward spot when he underbets the pot and I want to make a medium size raise (more on why I think that is the best play in terms of the hand ranges in a minute). If we were deeper relative to the pot, this wouldn't be the case. Even calling, as adanthar pointed out, is awkward. The point is that these things have to be in the back of your mind when you choose the first raise. I do this all the time against medium or short stacks, making sure that a steal raise is small enough that if they push over the top I don't have odds to call, or if I have a hand I'm willing to go allin with, like an A6 or K9, but don't want to, raising enough so they know I'm committed.

My other main thought about bet sizing and choosing action has to do with maximizing my win versus the hands I beat and minimizing my loss versus the hands that beat me. I think it is obvious that both preflop and on the flop, I am ahead some of the time and behind some of the time against the range of hands I am facing. I think choosing action and bet size is more complicated than saying "on average I am ahead, so I play, or on average I am behind, so I fold." What you want to aim to do is choose bet sizes that encourage the hands that you beat to speed up and encourage the hands that beat you to slow down. Since the latter are better hands than the former, this is hard to do, but not necessarily impossible, especially in position when you get information before your opponent.

Two examples of what I am talking about from his hand. Preflop, I chose not to reraise because I just calling was much more likely to extract money from the worse hands I could be facing. As he was first to act and still had the initiative, I am sure he bets nearly any flop, and probably with a smallish (i.e readable) bet when he misses. I realize no one is this predictable but we're talking probabilities here. Anyway, with TT, I like this. What I don't like is someone calling my reraise with a range of hands like AA-99, Ak-AQ and then checking to me on a Q66 flop (or pushing allin preflop with a range that probably crushes me.)

The flop is the trickiest part of this hand, because it is probably almost even money whether I am beat. I think on average I'm ahead a bit more often than not on a one-overcard flop in this spot, but it is real close. Ideally, I would like a way to charge AK, AJ, 99-77, and diamond draws, while still giving myself a chance to find out if I am behind (and crushed by everything that beats me except A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. This is possible if I have 10000 behind, because I can make this raise to 2500 (or 3000) after he bets 1100, and the pot is still small enough versus my stack where I can fold to a reraise (a reraise he is very unlikely to make without at least a Q, given my action thus far. Though folding to one of the big diamond draws reraising allin would be a mistake, I wouldn't be a horrible one since often this reraise allin would be a hand I have two outs against). Here, with a < 5000 stack the raise commits me. Had I raised less preflop, all of the bets would be smaller, and I may have been able to make this raise, although it still would have been a little awkward. For those who said I should push to fold out AK, I disagree. I WANT AK or diamonds to call this raise. I want to *almost* price them in. This is how I get value from the hand. I want it to be a raise that he shouldn't call with 6-9 outs and I want to be in a stack size situation where if he happens to hit his card I can get away. As I think about this now, I realize that there are something like 15-18 scare cards for the turn and if he bets all of them every time, I would be folding the turn too much, but my betting pattern could represent AK or diamonds often enough that he will be afraid to bet the scare cards he doesn't hit. This is where being in position helps.

As played preflop and with the stack sizes, I think I have to call the flop. A push is only called by the hands that beat me and I would like a chance of getting more out of the hands I beat. Had I just called the flop, I fold the turn. As it was, I called the turn. Of course I lost, but I'll wait a bit to say what he had.

I realize this is long, but any comments would be very appreciated. I think this is a good lesson hand for me and those of you who already understand the things I am trying to figure out could be a great help.

Thanks for reading.
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