[McMelchior]

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You know you're drawing to two outs

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This is where you go wrong. Nobody in the world can narrow another players holdings down to one (1) specific hand based on this little information.

This holds especially true in a low-buy-in tournament, where much of the betting and raising is highly impulsive and illogical.

You must consider a range of hands that makes sense based on the play of the hand in question, and on previous experience with the player.

As you said, with only scant experience there's not much to hang your hat on here. And to that range you must add the probability that villain is trying to take you off the hand with a raw bluff. You don't have to watch a $10 buy-in for very long to see instances of that, so not assigning say at least a one in ten probability to a bluff would be poor judgement.

What so many players fail to realize (and what truly renders them "weak/tight") is that poker is a gambling game, and the only way of coming out ahead in the long run is to assess odds as comprehensively as possible based on information present - and then commit your chips when you're getting the right odds.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)