Re: KK in trouble ... or not?
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Sorry for the spoiler Dave ... I thought 1h 15m would be sufficient time between my original post and the result, but I guess I should have posted it in white.
My problem with your line of thoughts is, that if I have to give villain credit for calling 97 PF for close to 5% of his stack in a field of 4 (and remember, I haven't seen him play loose during the last 9 hands) I believe I have to give him credit for being able to try to move me off the pot with a draw.
There's no way I can narrow him down to one single hand (like 97) based on the action so far. If I include this hand in his range (QQ,99,77,AQ,97) I end up as a 42:57 dog. Still ignoring the button this is a must move for the pot-odds (t12,300 for t6,200 or pretty much 2:1)!
Best,
McMelchior (Johan)
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Heh, I was just joking around about telling results.
The important part of what I was trying to say is that I would put BB on any two pair, not neccessarily 97 (though it seems more plausable than say Q7) before I would put him on a set.
I really don't think you have any significant reads on BB. Unless you've seen him before, I would not trust 1 orbit as indicative of anything. If you were going to allow your observation of him to influence you, it would seem he's acting like a good player (raising and then laying down). So you can't put a good player on calling a multiway pot with QQ, a good player would push there or something. A good player also wouldnt have played it so fast.
Most importantly, I would definatly see myself as behind with that many actors, and a raise of my bet. This isnt the easiest laydown, but a disciplined player has to make it. You know you're drawing to two outs, or perhaps the hopes of a board pairing, not good.
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