[eastbay]

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Pushing has EV difference of -.000001% of prize pool (edited this for clarity)

Jman's Theory says: PUSH
Matt's Theory says: FOLD

Am I making sense?

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Here's a novel idea: test your theory.

I think you will find it is false.

If you can't test it on full scale poker (although I don't see why it's not possible), come up with a simplified model that retains the properties that you think are essential to making your theory correct.

eastbay

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I would like to do this.

As for full scale poker, I think it would take many years to come up with a sample significant enough.

A full scale model, sounds good. Unfortunately I have no idea whatsoever how to do this. Wanna help?

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Not really, no.

I will just say that I have done investigations along these lines before, however, both with simpler model games as well as full preflop push/fold NL Hold'Em and have consistently found that there are no circumstances HU where taking -cEV situations is superior to some other strategy which never does. In fact, very strong strategies will collapse very quickly once you add -cEV moves to them.

eastbay

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Here's one for you.

You're playing against opponent X. You've been playing with him for 6 hands heads up.

Hero: 6000
X: 4000
Blinds 250/500

Opponent X is a tall slender man with a rugged handsome face. He has been folding every hand except for AA.

He's waiting for those aces baby! And he's gonna bust you so good when he gets em.

Now you are dealt 94s in the sb. He will only call with AA. However, this opponent X has decided that if you push 4 times in a row into him (you've already pushed 3) that he will adjust his range for the rest of the tournament to calling and even pushing himself with 22+, Ax, Kx, Qx.

Clearly, the optimal strategy is to fold this 94s, even though pushing the hand is +cEV. Then push the next three chances you get, then fold again.

Now, in real life, examples aren't this clear cut. They are more like the one's which I am trying to describe in this thread.

Would you mind opening your mind and thinking about them now that I have shown you how +cEV plays are not the optimal strategy 100% of the time?

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Would you mind applying basic reading comprehension and reasoning skills to see what you're posting is a complete non-sequitur?

eastbay