Re: Baccarat
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If you do it like that then all the monster progressive would be +EV. Such as the ones that are $5 mil+ for a dollar slot ...
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That's not true. The odds of winning the Megabucks progressive is ~ 1:50 million. That can only be won on a $3 bet. It all depends on how the machine is programmed.
Say the machine was programmed to add .05 per coin to the progressive and had a .05 hold (.90 payout). Each play of $3 would cost the player .30 -- and the jackpots real value would have to be above 50MM * .30 to have +EV, or 15 million dollars. For the jackpot to have a real value of 15 million it would have to be, 1) doubled (2 * 15MM = 30MM) to compensate for the annuity payment, and 2) adjusted for taxes of ~ 40% (30MM * 1.666 = 50MM) since we assume you are playing tax free dollars. So in this game you would have a +EV only when the jackpot > 50MM. Of course the EV would get more favorable the longer you played because you (and others) would be increasing the jackpot. In this scenario you actually have a positive expectation because there will only be one winner -- unlike in a state lottery where the adjusted prize exceeds the probability, since the number of tickets sold when that happens always favors more than one winner.
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