[imported_stealthcow]

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Why didn't you cap the river with 2nd nuts?

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Villian's river 3-bet means Ks more than 50% of the time.

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I'd say it's closer to 80%. If we had the T instead of the Q we could probably find a fold to the 3-bet.

Let's think about your turn raise, and what purpose it serves. There's two options to why you would want to do this. First, he has a better hand that you can get to fold. This is possible is he has a 2 or 5, however both of these are less likely than a J/spade draw just from the types of hands that will defend in the BB (though you didn't give any reads). The parlay of this happening by itself (having a 2/5 and folding) might beat the 1 in 7 you need.

Second reason: Charge a 1-spade flush draw an extra BB. I don't like this argument though when the villain is aggressive and OOP, since he will likely bet this river 90% of the time whether he hits or misses. You'll get 2BB in the pot either way if you just call.

Now the downside: If you're 3-bet here, which is a very real possibility since he could raise the flop with a flush draw, then you have to call with the 2nd nuts.I think the chance of a 3-bet here is too big, and combined with only the marginal folding equity vs. a 2 or 5 makes this turn a call.

The bigger question is if you call the turn, what non-spade river cards are you calling another BB for? This is where a read would be nice.

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this is a really good post.

my turn raise only folds out better hands, and occasionally charges someone with a random ass hand that tries to get tricky. i think its a good turn raise if the player has check raised me on teh flop before and i want to get to a showdown cheaply against him.

stealthcow-