Re: Is this river lead, ever not the nuts?
Almost never the nuts. If he has AQ he should have made his move on the flop, and then should have check-raised the river. I think he has AK (flop slowplay) and I'm coming around to the value of a river raise.
I imagine you'll tell us that he had AQ but I think this is a highly suspect way of playing it that you basically won't see ever. Turn check-raises with high cards on board vs. a preflop three-bettor rarely indicate a hand that's made in some way already and intends to show down.
JimmyV
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