Re: Deep thinking hand
Assuming that your read is correct... He has a good hand, but a QJ is unlikely since you believe he has Aces, why would you check the turn, if you know he fears a check-raise. You give him infinite odds to catch up. All you get in return is a chance to catch a bluff. If he has AAxx with clubs, he is probably not betting unless he makes his flush or catches an Ace. Why not pot bet the turn and take it down now. If he has the straight and a redraw, can you honestly say you could fold the turn pot bet that is quite likely to come? You seem to be risking an 80-90 dollar pot to win 125 or so and I jsut dont see that you can count on him betting a weaker hand AND paying you off all that often
I am even confused by the narrow ranges of hands you describe. And to be quite honest, it is this sort of situation that I have the most difficulty understanding in pot limit O8 Won't the pre-flop raiser bet at MANY pots in this spot. If he is only going to be called with 2 pair or better, it seems he should bet the pot, or perhaps less, with EVERY hand. Won't the caller have a fairly wide range of hands, most of which either beat AA or have a good draw to do so. It really seems like this kind of situation, a high flop in a high low game, has to become a contest of wills as much or more so than a contest of cards. Is the callers positional disadvantage so great the he simply cannot win a "pissing contest" and that he must therefore only contest the pot when he hits it fairly solidly?
Jim M
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