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Old 08-18-2005, 12:50 AM
weevil weevil is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 79
Default Re: a question on Variance

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Tonight I had a 51BB drop in 500 hands. It just happens. When you lose a few overpair hands, get your sets runner-runnered, and your straights flushed or boated, it happens in the blink of an eye.

(Sorry, it was just ugly for me tonight. Oh I forgot to mention, when KK hits its 2 outer over you TT in a 15BB pot.)

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I just had a 50BB drop in 40 hands at 2/4. Bunch of huge hands getting drawn out on and missed draws in turn. At this point it barely fazes me, since it's awesome people are drawing near dead as often as they do against obvious made hands, even the supposed TAGish players. If you think you've been playing well, and had a big downswing and are really upset, you should probably move down a level or two until such things become second nature. Downswings can really put you on a bad subconcious tilt that only winning can bring you out of.

The only time I get pissed about variance is when I've been faced with an onslaught of really marginal situations, and lose big. I'm never too sure if swings like that are due to my poor play or are simply bad luck. I try and stay away from the more marginal situations when I'm losing, since I find myself less able to judge my player reads properly. A subtle form of tilt, but I think more costly than playing somewhat improperly. This is the big reason for why I've stopped playing six-max. Player reads are such a huge factor in that game, and you're almost always in a borderline situation.

As far as the OP taking a week off to cool down, I think he should keep playing. If not at the current level, then step down for a bit. You should be able to feel comfortable with a 100BB loss, again provided you felt you played well.
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