Re: trips vs flush (or boat)? party 30/60
On average, BB will have a flush approx 37% (actually 36.363%) of the time. You’re getting 7-1 to call the River bet so you need to win 1 in 8 times to break even.
There are 6 non-heart better Aces, 9 FH Aces, and 9 other FH hands possible. That’s an additional 25 hands that can beat you.
There are 18 non-heart Ax hands that you beat. There are 24 pocket pairs that you beat but maybe BB would only play ½ of those in this fashion. So, 63% of the time you are not facing a flush and you are a 30 to 25 favorite. It looks like a call to me unless you were facing a total rock that wouldn’t bet a hand you could beat on the River. Since this BB is unknown, I think a call is best play.
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