[randomstumbl]

Mark's post says basically what I'm thinking. Your opponent's tendencies are often the most important factor in any decision.

I guess at this point, I'm probably the worst person to ask this question. I just have a set of drawing decisions that are basically memorized. That doesn't mean I always discard a 9 or always stay pat with a 9, it just means that I know what I normally do and can look for reasons not to do that.

For example, if my opponent stays pat with rough hands and pays off with them, I'm more willing to draw rough (but, not as rough as my opponent). If my opponent folds too much, I'm more willing to open the pot.

Basically, I look at how their play differs from mine. Then, I think about why I don't play like they do and think about a strategy to exploit that decision. Unfortunately, you have to know the basic strategy of the game to do that.

My rule of thumb is to throw a 9 away on the first draw. Also, you should realize that a decent 3 card draw is not that much of a dog against a 2 card draw. I'm not sure you're a favorite at all when you draw two cards to a "smooth" 9 against a decent 3 card draw.