Re: RESULTS
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If we ascribe the wider ROH, which i certainly would given my read on villain's play, and the situation then we have basically a borderline call not an incorrect one
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So, the equity of folding this hand is something like 0.5 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.3 (UTG wins but you win one too)= very roughly 0.8
and of calling: 0.65 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.02 (UTG wins and you miracle win the next 3 hands at least) = 0.67
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With the wider ROH it's folding = 0.44 + 0.3 = 0.77 Calling = 0.72 + 0.02 = 0.74. Still a fold but that's largely influenced by the 30% estimate, and in addition there are times that you fold and win your upcoming hand where you're at approximately 30% equity, and STILL don't get a seat as you might still be the shortest stack at the table if UTG triples up on this hand. In other words your chances of coming in 12th can be, and probably are less than your chances of winning your upcoming must play hand, in which you might have @ 30% equity.
Also I think the chances of someone on the other table going out first (no one at the other table <10,000 in chips) is basically negligible.
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No, because the villain has only 44% equity (0.56 he busts) with the wider range. It really doesn't make too much difference, because the change in villain's equity if Hero calls is pretty similar whether villain has wide or narrow range.
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