[Guernica4000]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming that this is a 11+R turbo...which may or may not be correct. The blinds are almost certainly going up before it gets to hero, so he can't make it through the blinds without winning a hand.

If you fold and villain wins the hand, you have to win a hand at or before your SB.
If you fold and villain loses, woohoo

If you call and villain wins the hand, you have to win both your big and small blinds (actually, it might be worse than this given the antes, your odds of making the cut drop to near zero).

If you call and villain loses, woohoo.

There are 3 players left to act behind you. Very likely none of them have a better hand than you. The range of hands that villain will go in with here may be as narrow as AA-TT, AK-AQ, or as wide as any PP, any A, some K good kicker, maybe some Q-high.

Assuming both blinds will call and check it down regardless of holdings, if villain pushes with the narrow range, he has about 54% equity vs 2 random hands, and 40% equity vs. 2 random hands and A9s. For the broad range, the corresponding numbers are 44 and 28%.

If you fold, it's kinda difficult to put a number on your chances of winning the first hand you play in the next 4 (which is what you have to do). This is very dependant on whether you'll get a lot of callers, but it's probably in the 30-40% range. Lets say 30%, because even if you win that hand you are not guaranteed to get in.

So, the equity of folding this hand is something like 0.5 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.3 (UTG wins but you win one too)= very roughly 0.8
and of calling: 0.65 (UTG loses the hand) + 0.02 (UTG wins and you miracle win the next 3 hands at least) = 0.67

Even though the 0.3 number is extremely rough, it can get as low as 0.17 before calling is as good as folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meow,

I think you need to include some % for someone going out at the other table too. That makes it an clear fold IMO.