[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah it would be our last chance to get J's or 10's to fold as I'm not betting this for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

But how often will that happen? Let's do some algebra.

I'll assume that all combinations of hands are equally likely for now, and that he's not folding an A or K. I'm also putting him on a somewhat sane raising range of AA-TT, AK-AT, KQ, KJs. Finally, I'm assuming he's as likely to fold QQ as he is TT, as I don't see why that should make a difference.

Thus, he isn't folding:
AA (1)
KK (3)
AK (6)
AQ (8)
AJ (8)
AT (8)
KQ (12)
KJs (3)

But we might bluff him off QQ, JJ or TT, 6 combinations each. Thus we have a chance of bluffing him off of 18 out of 69 possible hands. Our bluff is profitable if

(chance of having QQ-TT) * (chance of folding) > (pot odds)


Since we're risking 1 bet to win 4.25, if we let x be the chance of folding we have

(18/69) * x > 1/4.25

and solving for x yields
x > (1/4.25) * (69/18), or just above 90%.

Are you 90% sure that he'll fold QQ-TT if he has it?