[djoyce003]

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OK, preflop I can definitely raise bigger but I can't see how it is SUCH a big deal whether it is 3bb or 5bb. The implied odds are there for implied odds hands either way. Maybe 5bb is a bit more profitable, but it's not like 3bb will make AA a loser here.

Postflop, however, I might have turned it into a huge loser. But I can't believe the lack of hand reading in a lot of these posts. If MP doesn't have a flush draw most of the time here, I'm amazed. And BB can have one pair a lot of the time. Or a draw. It HAS to be too weak to fold to a minraise here. And once BB checks the turn, I think there is about a zero percent chance that he has me beat. He has top pair here 99% of the time at least. So if I'm beat, I am pretty sure that it is by a set from MP. That's the only thing that makes sense given the flop action. What besides a set and a flush draw cold call the flop raise? And a set is going to re-raise a fair amount of the time so you have to discount it a bit.

Have I gone completely mad, or does this make sense?

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I think you are way off here. Couple of points:

The difference between the 3bb preflop and the 5, is that yeah, they'll probably call the 5...but you are getting more money in the pot while you are ahead...both are ev, but the one where you get $5 from each of them preflop must be better than getting $3.

As for hand reading....MP's flat call of a bet and a raise, then a bet on the turn SCREAMS of a guy that flopped the straight. I don't think you are ahead of the BB anywhere near 99% of the time in this example either. If he had two pair, 4 to the straight on the board would make him slow down too. I would estimate you are ahead of Bb significantly less than 99% of the time...I would think its somewhere around a coin flip barring a read that the guy is over-aggro and will play a crappy top pair agressively.