[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Now card player says that hand 1 is a 68.9% to 31.1% favorite.

I was always told that for an easy odds estimate on the flop, you take each out and add 4% for each one.
...
(9+3+3+3+3) x 4 = 84%
...
what the hell am I doing wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]
The main problem is that you are using that estimate out of the context where it is reasonably accurate. It works much better in more common situations where you have 1-10 outs, not 21.