Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
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I don't know what the other part of the story is. All I know is that given my experience at 2/4 full ring and my experiences at shorthand, the lower winrate is not enough to explain the depth and types of sustained downswings/long breakeven streaks.
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It's the combination of increased variance in the game - because the nature of the game involves repeatedly taking smaller edges - and lower win rates.
In theory, if the game obeys a normal distribution, swings are proportional to variance/win rate (variance = standard dev ^ 2).
As Jeff W says in the thread linked above, a common SD for 100 hand samples in full ring is 15BB, while 17 is more common for 6-max. Let's suppose a 2BB/100 winner at full ring moves to 6-max and has a win rate of 1.5BB/100 there.
Then variance/win rate moves from 112.5 to 192.67, a 70% increase: you'll see swings that are 70% larger on average.
Guy.
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