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Old 08-14-2005, 05:04 PM
steveyz steveyz is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 142
Default Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!

I think there's two definitions of "normal" here. First, at given time, it is not "normal" to be in the midst of a 300BB downswing for a solid winning player. However, after a good solid player plays > X number of hands (X depending on his skill and game conditions), there will come a time where his mathematical likelihood of experiencing a 300BB downswing is > 50% (replace 50% with whatever % you would start regarding as normal). For example, if you've played a million hands in very aggressive online mid/high limit games, chances are probably pretty good that you have experienced a 300BB+ downswing. Of course, this depends on your true winrate and how easily you tilt, etc.

Unless you are a machine, you will probably not be playing optimally when you are in the midst of a large downswing. That increases the chance that you will experience a 300BB swing (usually increase both the length and severity of all significant downswings). But at somepoint, even if you are a machine, as long as you keep playing, your chances of experiencing such a downswing will grow > 50%. This actually translates to 400BB or 500BB or greater downswings. However, at that point, to expect a > 50% chance of experiencing such a swing would require so many hands that it would be basically be humanly impossible.

So a valid point would be that most posters here have not played the > X number of hands such that their odds of experiencing a 300BB downswing is > 50% (if they always played consistently, no matter how well they were running). In that sense, a 300BB downswing could be considered NOT 'normal'.
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