[rigoletto]

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it is statistically possible for you to drop more than 200 bets (or maybe even 300 or more, I'm too lazy right now to do the math)

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I think what Ray is saying is that, in his experience, good players usually have a high enough winrate that this is unlikely. Or maybe that your optimal limit is one where you are good enough that this is unlikely.

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I think what Ray is saying is that a good player is never to good to consider the circumstances under which he is playing. This is not about the math (alone) it is about considering your ability in the present circumstances at all times! The big problem with the whole math discussion is that it carries the assumption that you are beating the game.