Math shows folding is correct.
ok EV of Calling:
If you don't flop and Ace of Queen, you don't have odds to call against his range of hands unless you have a flush draw or Straight Draw and even then you might not because he could have a set or you could be going for a split. So I guess I'll just consider whether you flop a pair or not. You flop a pair about 1/3 of the time.
If you flop a queen you are now ahead of TT and JJ and AK, which have 2,2, and 3 outs respectively. You have 5 outs against KK and 2 outs against AA. You have no outs against QQ.
If you flop an A, you are ahead of TT-KK (they have 2 outs) and have 3 outs against AK.
You also could flop both an A and Q, but the odds of this are 32:1 so I'll ignore it.
So about 4/6 of the time you call and fold the flop if it doesn't contain an A or K.
So 1/6 of the time you flop a Q you are ahead of 24 combos and behind 10. So 5/12 of the time that you flop a Q, you are ahead of your opponent. Half the combos have 2 outs (TT,JJ) and against the other half (AK) have 3 outs. So your opponent has 2.5 outs on average. 7/12 of the times you flop a Q, you will be behind. 6/10 of the time you will 5 outs (against KK), 3/10 you will have 2 outs (against AA), and 1/10 of the time you will have 0 outs (against QQ). So on average you have 3.6 outs.
Ok, so of the times when you flop a Q you will go on to win 5/12-(1/10)(5/12) or or about 42% of the time (I think this is right,??). You will lose 7/12-(1/7)(7/12) or about 58% of the time. I guess I could have just ignored the outs your opponents has because it's such a small number when multiplied by the percentage you're ahead/behind...unless I'm doing something wrong.
If you flop an Ace (1/6 of the time) you are ahead of TT(6)+JJ(6)+QQ(3)+KK(6) or 21 combos and behind AK (8 combos). So you are ahead 21/29 of the time and behind 8/29 of the time. We'll ignore outs to make this simpler.
Ok. Total EV of calling:
(4/6)(-80) + (1/6)(.42)(330)+(1/6)(.58)(-280)+(1/6)(21/29)(330)+(1/6)(8/29)(-280) = -30
Folding has highest EV so fold is right.
EDIT: I forgot to make the 80 a -80 in my previous post of this which is why calling came out to be higher EV...it is actually negative EV.
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