[Shandrax]

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(This may be a repeat post. If so I apologize.)

10 20 Blinds. You are in the Big Blind with AQ. You have plenty of chips. A tight player starting with a short stack of 300 makes it 100 to go in early position. All fold. 80 to you. He has 200 left.

You somehow are almost positive about his play. He has two tens or higher or AK. If you move in he will fold only the two tens. If you call he will always move in 200 on the flop and call if you move in. Preflop you should call, fold or move in?

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A. All-in preflop:

AA (6) -- 7% = 0.5 wins
KK (6) -- 28% = 1,68 wins
QQ (6) -- 30% = 1,8 wins
AK (16) -- 23% = 1,38 wins
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34 -- 5 wins = 14,71%

Pot: 610 -- for your 280 you need 45,90% equity. That's not the case, therefore all-in is wrong.

B. Call
AA (6) -- 7% = 0.5 wins
KK (6) -- 28% = 1,68 wins
QQ (6) -- 30% = 1,8 wins
TT (6) -- 42,5% = 2,5 wins
AK (16) -- 23% = 1,38 wins
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40 -- 7,5 wins = 18,75%

Pot = 210 -- for your 80 you need 38% pot equity. With 18,75% it looks that this is not the case, BUT the automatic all-in on his part could change the outcome, because if you win, you get 200 more, while you fold if you miss. So it's a question of implied odds. On the other hand if you flop a queen and he has Q-Q you will lose 280. Flopping the 4th queen should happen rarely though. Same problems with the ace.

At this point some expert has to take over because I don't know how to continue the math from here. For instance 15% of the possible card combinations are Q-Q. Chances for the 4th queen to flop are 1:47 (right? We know 4 cards in this case).

Don't forget that my numbers are only estimations because of different suits and such. This small margin of error could turn a close call into a close fold.

Maybe a call turns out to be correct.