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Old 08-13-2005, 04:46 AM
bigredlemon bigredlemon is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 544
Default Re: Folding aces on third (stud8)

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Do you really put him on trips here? I would at least call down until his board gave me a reason to fold, if not re-raise to try and get it heads up with what seems like another big pair.

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For seat 3 to come in with a bet, he likely has a strong HU hand. His most likely hands are big burried pair or 3 lows with an ace. For seat 6 to come in, he needs a hand at least as strong. This means either a 3 low straight or flush or 3low with an ace. Seat 1 knows there's almost no chance he'll get anyone to fold to one more bet, and there's no real value in raising here, so he probably has either a big suited straight or burried pair.

If I come in with a raise, seat 6 and 1 will definetly call, and seat 3 may call. Thus the most likely situation is that I'll be up against 2 low straights draws with at least one of them with a good flush out and/or big burried pair. At least one of my Ace and possibly both are dead. I have about 0.025 pot equity edge against this range of hands. I don't think that is enough to justify the strategic disadvantages (I'll probably be acting first, can only make small bets while i'm ahead while they can make big bets when they hit their low and are freerolling, they can disguise their hand whereas I can't, etc.)

So basically, what Mscags said [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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