[eastbay]

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I don't know about you, but I think my own personal level of play varies from day to day, mood to mood. If I'm emotionally distraught and hit a cooler, I'm likely to start playing worse. If I'm in a better mood, I'm certainly more likely to concentrate. I definitely believe that some of my worst downswings have been directly related to tilting, whether I was willing to admit it at the time or not.

It's tough for someone to say that they were tilting, or playing worse than normal, but that's our nature.

I do agree though that we really have no better estimate, I'm merely stating that we don't always play at one constant level.

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Right. And what I'm saying is that it doesn't necessarily matter if you play at one level for the estimate to be accurate. What matters is how fast the variation is in relation to the sampling time. If it's a day-long thing, it won't matter. If it's a month long thing, it might.

So we're agreeing in principle, I just think you may be over-estimating a little the degree to which this kind of thing erodes the value of the estimate.

I certainly don't mean 3% as in not 2.9% and not 3.1%. A factor of two in either direction isn't going to give me cause to throw out the method.

eastbay