[oreogod]

well I did some numbers myself. I think I did this right. Comments appreciated if I messed up.

.9(1.78) + .1(88) ~ 10.4 percent equity or about 8.6:1

Now if we count the effective odds on the turn, if it doesn’t get raised or capped...best case, no more raises, we are looking at 19:3 (call from solid player + 1 bet from each on the river) or 6.3:1 w/ the call on the end. We are about 8.6:1 equity wise. So even in the best case scenario, where we pay the minimum by calling two cold on the turn and calling a bet on the river, we are still far below what we need. Making this a pretty clear fold, as best case scenario looks grim and if you count reality, it is probably going to be much worse.



Here is the Pokerstove info I got my numbers from:

1,008 games 0.005 secs 201,600 games/sec

Board: Kd Th 4s Ad
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 01.7857 % [ 00.02 00.00 ] { TsTc }
Hand 2: 16.6667 % [ 00.17 00.00 ] { AA-KK }
Hand 3: 81.5476 % [ 00.82 00.00 ] { QJs }


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1,134 games 0.005 secs 226,800 games/sec

Board: Kd Th 4s Ad
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 88.0952 % [ 00.88 00.00 ] { TsTc }
Hand 2: 09.5238 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 02.3810 % [ 00.02 00.00 ] { 44 }