Re: Make a \"Hellmuthian\" Laydown?
You seem to want some concrete rationale. Let's see what the math tells us.
First, you're a big favorite to win. If you're against aces, you're a 4-1 dog. The chances of being up against aces (6 possible hands), vs. all other possible raising hands (let's say pairs over 10s, A-10 or higher) is 88-6, or 15-1. You're a 70-30 favorite over the A-X hands, an 80-20 favorite over smaller pairs, and an 80-20 dog vs. aces.
So: effective winning percentage is:
80% against 20% of the possible hands (pairs) (.8X.2=.14)
70% against 73% of the possible hands (A-X) (.7X.73=.51)
20% against 7% of the possible hands (aces) (.2X.07=.014)
So, your winning percentage pre-flop is 66.4% against this range. That's 1.9 to 1...in FAVOR!
Even if you want to boil this down to a math problem, you ARE playing this hand!!!!
I think it's impossible for a call to be mathematically an error.
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