[BTirish]

Well, the guy did, in fact, have the flush. But I don't want the results to be dictating my thoughts on the play...

Do you think this one is an obvious call and fold unimproved? My thinking was definitely not as detailed as below, but I want to think through the best policy for a situation like this one.

My 2's are dead, so I guess I'm looking at 11 outs for 2 pair or better. With 19 cards out, that's 33% to make the hand. The pot is laying me 7:1 and 8:1 if open 7's calls too.

But how much is my equity discounted by the possibility that I'm actually drawing dead? I know he was the bringin... but he had to have something to call with on 4th and 5th. He might be betting out with a better 2 pair against the open 7's, but it'd have to be J's up over 6's... and a J and 6 were both out on 3rd. Since I don't think he has 2 pair, a flush seems the most likely. If I think it's more than 50% likely that he has the flush, then my equity is less than 15%, in which case it's a close decision (and this doesn't take into account the possibility of open 7's filling up or the clubs making the flush for real on 7th.)

Is this just playing scared? I just don't see much of an edge here, and in this level game (where the players are pretty weak), I'm not pushing the small edges. It's been working very well for me so far... but do you think I'm just surrendering extra money?