[nomadtla]

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I raise it here , call a 3 bet by MP2, and fold if UTG ck raises and MP2 caps. I agree that MP2 most likely has a lower set but a TAG could also play a nut flush draw the same way.


[/ QUOTE ] I'm stupid...

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Not at all. I am more woried about UTG playing a flush draw this way. I feel like MP2 has a set guessing tens cause of preflop action. I'd call here cause I'm worried UTG is trying to "fancy play" his flush.
If I had a specific read on UTG that told me to raise (or if I wasn't such a wus) then I think your line has great merit. We're all learning here man take it easy on yourself and take criticism as freindly not mean. Part of learning is making mistakes. (Though in this case I think your thought process was pretty crisp.)

Peace

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Ok it's late and this has been bugging me on the drive home from work when I made the original post. Since it's late it's a good time for math IMHO. So to try and decide which option has the greatest expectation I'm gonna try and equate this. Now to make an equation of this you have to get some specific #'s. Maybe my numbers don't agree with your ideas but their my #'s and it's late so deal with it.
Basic assumptions for the equations:
1 If UTG has a flush he will allways raise/3-bet, and you know him well enough that you will fold to his raise/3-bet every time. He has the flush 20% of the time.
2 You will win against MP2 75% of the time (maybe an underestamite but had to put a # on it)
3 UTG will always fold for 2 unless he has the flush but will overcall for 1 10% of the time (obviously since he allways raises the flush his overcall is something you beat)
4 MP2 will 3 bet 40% of the time. You will allways call but when he 3 bets you the flush is more likely his holding so you only win that 70% of the time

Ok so lets look at just calling.
[-1*.40]+[((+1*.75)*.90)+((+2*.75)*.10)] =+.425

Now raising
[((-2*.40)*.60)+((-3*.30)*.40)]+[((2*.60)*.60)+((3*.70)*.40)] =.72

So by my math which may be spotty because it's late, raising is more profitable by .3BB.

Now you may question my %'s but I had to have some solid values to do the math, and I think the math (both equation and answers) is corect and it answers the question for me.
Granted as in TOP you can never be this certain about your percentages (even with good reads) but mathmatically I think this shows raising is better.

This was done as much for me as for anyone but I hope it at least gives you something to think about