Thread: 6/12 hi/lo
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Old 08-10-2005, 09:01 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: 6/12 hi/lo

No Clue - A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? Nice starting hand. From UTG I probably limp and then re-raise with it.

Then I probably directly bet the flop.

But although I probably would have played the first two betting rounds both differently, and except that I probably wouldn't have any damned idea about what cards my opponents held here if I played it the same as you, I think you played fine.

On the third betting round, I would not check-raise. I can see leading, and that's probably what I would do, depending on what happened on the previous betting rounds. With the betting on the first two betting rounds as you've described it, I almost surely would lead but then just call if raised. It should look a lot like you have the nut straight when you raise here. One major problem is the original bettor may actually have the nut straight, and in that case may re-raise. But you do gain deception from your raise. That could either work to your advantage or disadvantage on the river.

You don't really have anything (but prospects) yet. You're probably folding (I would) to 18/44 cards on the river. Another 17/44 cards get you half, a quarter, or a sixth of the pot. Another 2/44 cards, J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], might scoop, but also might simply cost you another big bet on the river. Disregarding straight flush possibilities, 3/44 cards scoop for you and 4/44 cards are probably good for a scoop or 3/4 (or 2/3).

Assuming your opponents will both call on the river if you make one of your draws, you're getting 4 to 1 full pot implied fresh money odds for your raise, 3 to 2 half pot implied fresh money odds for your raise, and 1 to 4 (not good) quarter pot implied fresh money odds for your raise. If only one of your two opponents calls on the river if you make your draw, it's even worse for you.

(-1)*18/44 = -18/44
(+.4)*17/44 = +6.8/44
+(??)*2/44 - (??)*4/44 = ??
(+1)*3/44 = +3/44
(.75)*4/44* = +3/44

I don't know how to figure the third line above, and maybe I should be more optomistic about the second and fifth lines - but the best I can figure it, you end up with a negative e.v. for your raise - and that's giving the raise the benefit of the doubt.

Normally I like raising on the turn. I like it a lot. I especially like raising on the turn when raising on the turn increases your chances of scooping. But although I'll agree your raise is deceptive (representing the nut straight), I don't think you increase your chances of scooping much here with the check-raise, and in terms of value, it definitely comes up short.

However, your check-raise on the turn was not as bad as your fold on the river - not even in the same ball park.

Just my opinion.

Buzz
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