[Derek in NYC]

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most of the bets go in postflop. don't tell me about preflop edge.

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If you're three-betting, you're going to have 7SBs in the pot going into the flop (1SB of which is dead money from the BB).

In the majority of cases, the flop is going to miss you, so if you want to take the "outplay the opponent from OOP without a pair or an ace" approach, the post-flop action is either going to be bet-raise-three bet-fold (6SBs), or possibly, check-bet-check raise-call-lead turn-fold (6SBs).

In either of these "outplay" situations, the amount of money going in postflop, is roughly equal to the amount going in preflop.

By contrast, obviously when you hit a pair against a light steal raiser, there is a much greater likelihood that you take the hand to showdown. (I certainly dont think you can go past 4th street without a pair against this sort of opponent.) However because a pair may well commit you to a showdown, this is precisely why preflop edge matter--paying off on a weak bottom pair or, even worse, pushing a dominated top pair is an EV disaster.

I dont think you can ignore preflop equity for this reason.

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you can outplay this guy postflop

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This statement puzzles me. When you hit the flop, yes, I can see where "outplaying" the bad guy comes in (i.e., you'll either recognize when you're ahead and value bet him all the way, or in more ambiguous situations, you'll check-call him and let him bluff off his money).

But when you miss the flop (the majority of the time), the only way to "outplay" an aggressive opponent is to either outspew him, or to be uber-passive with a hand that somehow is good at showdown (e.g., small pair, ace high, etc.) The passive approach doesnt make sense to me since K8o UI isn't a showdown-able hand; the out-spewing approach, is speculative and high variance at best.

So like I said originally, I think that trying to "outplay" this guy means that on the majority of flops, you're going to need to spew. Maybe this is marginally +EV; it is undeniably high variance. I pass on these "edges".