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Old 08-10-2005, 08:23 AM
arch12 arch12 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
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Default Re: AQo against LA-P fold the turn?

Both the flop and turn play is fine in my opinion. Given your read on the player he isn't semi-bluffing a draw enough times to warrant calling down. I would put villain on a pair of Ks or greater and thus folding the turn is acceptable.

On the other hand, I think there is also an argument for calling in an attempt to catch two pair. If you anticipate villain leading the river, you will have implied odds of 9-1 to catch two pair (assuming you raise and he calls). I feel this is sufficient to attempt to outdraw him as your outs will be good a substantial amount of the time. Hence, I would assume you have just under the full 5 outs. I think there is also a secondary advantage with this line, and that being he may check to you if he has a busted flush draw. This would allow you to take down the entire pot and is a great added benefit. The only problem I can foresee with this line is villain may not bet the river when an A falls. Note: With this line you cannot call the river unimproved, as I feel you have insufficient effective odds to do so.

Overall, I think you need to consider the following two issues before deciding to call or fold. The first being, how often he will lead when an A falls on the river. And second, the probability he is on a flush draw. This is where an accurate read is paramount and will assist you dramatically in reaching a decision. I would probably fold vs. a passive straight-forward player conceding that it isn’t likely enough he will bet the river when an A falls and that he will very rarely have a draw. So after all that, I’d probably fold. Hope this helps.
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