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Old 08-10-2005, 05:04 AM
arch12 arch12 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
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Default Re: How bad is my fold

I think first thing to note here is a sample size of only 30 hands can be very misleading and in most cases does not truly represent a player’s attributes. Therefore I would hold off labeling the opponent as passive until I’m given solid reason to do so. I’ve often made the mistake of classifying an opponent, with a tiny sample size, as passive only to find he was flat out bluffing.

With that being said, it is very possible SB has a smaller A and in my opinion folding isn’t an option. I would call the turn rather than 3-bet as I feel calling has a higher expectation. You will lose the minimum when you’re behind and in most cases win the same amount when you are ahead (possibly even more if BB calls the river). The reason I say this is BB is likely to overcall for 1 more big bet with a small/medium pocket pair or a pair of 9s (which in my opinion is his most likely holdings), while it’s highly likely he will fold if its 2 back to him. Thus you will win the same amount by overcalling and avoid the risk of being capped. Since it’s very likely you have the BB beat and close to drawing dead, his presence in the pot doesn’t pose much of a threat to you (at most he can have 2 outs to beat you). In closing, I think this is a great spot to make an overcall play.
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