[Derek in NYC]

I was having a discussion with a friend about whether you'd play K8o against a steal raise from the button. Button is very aggressive and will play back at you.

I said no, my friend said he thought maybe yes. Here's my thinking: against a RH, K8o is barely a favorite hot/cold. (Its something like 56-44.)

So in order for you to have an edge against the villain, you need to assume he's stealing with any two. If you make him even slighly selective, you're going to be a dog.

In addition to the equity reasons for not defending with K8o, there are also strategic reasons not to defend. In the hypothetical, villain is aggressive, and can be expected to play back at you. So regardless of whether you call and try to see a cheap flop, or three-bet to try and "take control" of the hand, you're going to need to hit the flop to feel comfortable. Obviously, you're a dog to do this, so the simple fact is that the majority of the time, you're going to find it very tricky to play this hand postflop.

In view of the dubious preflop equity that K8o has, and the fact that an aggressive opponent in positino will keep the heat on you after the flop, this hand strikes me as a pretty clear fold. Against the type of opponent who will fold the flop easily if it misses him, I'd be more inclined to play the hand.

Comments?

EDIT: My friend tells me that the actual read on the villain is that he will play back at you, but will fold to a re-raise. In my mind, this doesnt change the math any. Even if he will fold to a three-bet, in order to force him off a garbage bluff, you need to commit to spewing on the flop. I think this adds significant variance, with negligible gains in EV.