[Greg J]

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And since he limped UTG, let's restrict his hand range to AT-T9.

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This is a somewhat generous assumption to make of a typical .5/1 player at PP, but not unreasonable.

The entire analysis you wrote is predicated on the assumption he has a T. He may not (though the liklihood is high).

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In the method where you bet, you gain 1 bet 55% of the time, lose 1 bet 10% of the time, lose 2 bets 30% of the time, and gain 2 bets 5% of the time. This is -0.05 in EV (assuming you call a raise).

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You forgot the percent of the time where you bet, he folds a worse hand, and you gain nothing. You can't discount that.


And since I will agree with you that

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60% of the time here you are ahead

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... well you get the picture.

Let's say you bet and the 60% of the time you are ahead, you get 80% folds, and 20% calls. [.6(.8*0)+.6(.2*1)] This is .12 bets.

The 40% you are behind (to boats or higher flushes) you get 35% raises (which you call), 65% calls. [.4(-.35*2)+.4(-.65*1)]. This is -.56 bets.

Betting nets you -.44 bets.

Checking, you argue, nets you -.3 bets. I won't debate this.

I love this discussion.

EDIT: to clear up an error in writing an equation.