Re: review: hand 59
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Greg: I don't like c/c simply because villains will call with TP or 2 pair but they will check behind if bet to them.
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Perhaps smart ones with trip tends will also. I agree with yr analysis, but I am willing to lose a value single bet on the river here to a smart player.
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And it's very easy to fold to a raise here.
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I have a tough time laying down a pot this big for a single bet, and I don't like to put myself in positions when I can make such a large mistake (one way or another). I think I have been getting this concept from reading some of Harrington's stuff (as well as some Sklansky).
Let's say you bet. You are not folding a better hand -- you have no folding equity. Anyone with pretty much any club calls. Who is calling? Someone with 3 Ts? Probably. Who else? There are a lot more clubs out than there are Ts, which in my mind makes betting for value a loosing proposition on average. But, what will checking accomplish? It might initiate a bluff to represent a high club. Or it might make Mr. "I have 3 tens" bet for value, thinking that your checking the four flush board might mean you have no clubs. I have a good shot of getting the same number of bets from from someone with 3 Ts whether I bet or check. There is no sense in taking an unecessary risk.
I check because I don't want to be raised. I check because if I catch a bluff I might get a bet from someone who might not have called my river bet. And I check because if the hand gets checked through it's not that big of a deal (since he likely would not have called anyhow).
I might be wrong -- I have been before and will be again. But I am gonna have to be convinced on this one. Thanks for arguing wth me though BZ -- feel free to keep it up [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] (And anyone else too.)
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