[Redd]

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Hopefully I can expose a leak in my play here. How is this a standard valuebet on the river? The board paired the top flop card. I'd like to think at least 1 person had top pair on the flop and just made trips to beat me. Sure we are still good here a portion (large portion?) of the time, but is this bet really for value? Anybody have any numbers?

Does the situation change if it's a much higher card pairing (say a K)?

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I don't think we're guaranteed that someone has a six. The 'kool aid' line (as Grunchcan likes to put it) says that the board pairing actually makes it less likely that someone has one. This is a very draw-heavy board with many potential OESDs and flush draws that can correctly call. There are several loose players who will likely incorrectly call with a gutshot or other crap.

Any math would be a total estimate and highly variable with more specific reads, etc. But given what we've heard about the flop bettor, I'd guess we're best on the river about 3 times out of 4 after the first guy checks.