more numbers:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1131009
pokenum -mc 500000 -l27 3d 2h / ks kh kd - 8s 7h 5d 3c / ah
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3d 2h 161576 32.32 338325 67.67 99 0.02 0.323
8s 3c 5d 7h 338325 67.67 161576 32.32 99 0.02 0.677
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1131012
pokenum -l27 3d 2h / ks kh kd - 8s 7h 5d 3c ah
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 68880 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3d 2h 29154 42.33 39726 57.67 0 0.00 0.423
8s 3c 5d Ah 7h 39726 57.67 29154 42.33 0 0.00 0.577
Mark: giving villain all aces has a HUGE impact on the results, twodimes is saying about a 10% swing.
Anyways, you should be a favorite over a draw, but you really need to draw yourself