Re: How much will the 2008 be a referundum on Bush Jr.?
Every election is a referendum on the incumbent President, whether he is running or not (the sole exception may be if he just recently became President, like LBJ in 1964, who had been President for less than a year)
Look at elections where the incumbent is not running again (which will happen in 2008):
2000, 1988, 1968, 1960, 1952, 1928, 1920, 1908 - all the elections in the past century when the incumbent didn't run. Each result was largely due to the verdict of the incumbent.
Thumbs up -
T. Roosevelt 1904
Coolidge 1928
Reagan 1988
Thumbs down-
Wilson 1920
Truman 1952
Eisenhower 1960
Johnson 1968
Clinton 2000
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