This hand continues to bug me even a few days after I played it, I fear it may be exposing a leak.
Villain has been at the table for about 3 orbits and appears LAG. He is playing a lot of hands (V$IP has been 35% so far, but over just 28 hands this can be misleading) and raising most of them. I have only seen 2 hands of his at SD - QQ and AQs, both raised UTG. It is possible he is running well.
$2/$4 Hold'em (10 handed)
converter
Preflop: Naphand is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, <font color="#666666">
6 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>.
Flop: (5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Naphand calls.
Turn: (3.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, SB calls.
<font color="blue">Is this a good spot to make the free SD play?</font>
River: (7.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Naphand [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
I am very reluctant to fold this hand with only one suspect overcard on the flop to my TT. I have few outs so would like to try and win the pot on the Turn esp. if I can fold an Ace or hand like KQ. To an aggressive player HU this must look like the perfect steal-flop, on the other hand he must figure I will call/raise with overs like AK/AQ?
Who prefers to have more outs to improve to make this play? Who prefers a flop raise? If so do you check behind the Turn and call the River, or lead-fold the Turn?
When he calls the Turn I really do not think I am ahead, but it is possible Villain is playing a PP smaller than mine.
The donk on the River is ugly. This play is consistent with a player who is trying to re-steal, but he can still have a J and be trying to push me off AJ. It is even more horrible if you give him credit for putting me on AK. Yuk.
Ideas?