[SackUp]

I agree that a donkey in this situation will often be "taking a stand," but for that very reason I think not raising here is a fatal flaw.

I will start from the premise that much of the money we make from donkeys is from them making calls with improper odds and the only way for them to make an improper call is to put them to a bet. Here, the only time we ever put this donkey to a bet was preflop and it was for one bet each time after he was already committed to the pot (which he was most likely correct to stay in with a large portion of hands - though obviously his limp/raise is suspect on most hands).

With that said, us not raising this donky anywhere will make many of his bets "correct." By just letting him see a showdown with only one bet on each street you let the donkey do 3 things: 1) Let the donkey catch his lame draws cheaply; 2) Lose bets when the donk would have called your raise; and 3)Possibly bluff you off your hand if something like 4 flush or a double paired board pops up like here.

I think the major flaw in your analysis is thinking that the donkey will fold to a raise on the flop or the turn. The reason I think this is flawed is b/c you are starting from the premise that the donkey is "taking a stand." Donkeys typically don't fold when they have this attitude and usually call or raise when they have no business and thus making you lots of money in the long run. And actually will often call a raise even when not taking a stand b/c they are well - Donks.

So here is how I analyze the hand. First through the mind of the donkey and then through a 2+2er's.

Donkey

Preflop- the old Limp/reraise. Typically signifies a slow played monster but could mean a lot of things if he is nuts. I really think he could be on a large range of things if he really is "taking a stand."

Monster - this is a fairly standard move for donkeys to make especially with only one player in. He doesn't want his monster wasted by only going heads up. Monster PP are invincible in his head.

Middle PP - I think this is a VERY likely holding given the post flop play. (I know I guessed differently but that was a spurious answer and after thinking about the hand more I think we see this holding a TON of times in this situation). So why is the donk betting this way. Medium PP is a standard limp hand. But then you spice it up by raising him. He is pissed off at this and wants you to pay for raising with dirty overcards, thinking that he is way ahead right now with his pp. (And remember donkeys will not think correctly. They will justify their play by changing their mentality. So he will think his 3-bet will be chopping at you, while forgetting about the other two players around.) So he challenges you with a 3-bet trying to take control of the hand and not let your AK boss you around (again not giving you credit for a larger PP - or possibly trying to build the pot so his set will crush you)

Suited Connectors - limp standard. He will 3-bet b/c he read somewhere that middle suited connectors are the best hand to beat big broadways and thus he will clearly draw out on you. Also he heard somewhere it is good to build the pot to give you the "odds" for draws.

Rags - Many donks will play any two. The 3-bet comes with any two b/c many donks don't understand the concept of limit poker and think they can "bluff" people for one bet. This would come under the "taking a stand" approach or mabye the "LET's GAMBOOOL" approach.

Flop- Easy bet for him regardless of what he has. 1) He's either "taking a stand" and not letting you push him around by your cap; 2) thinks his PP is good b/c you have AK and didn't hit; or 3) Actually has a piece and has no intention of slowing down (remember donks often don't know how to slowplay)

Turn- Again an easy bet. 1) The board pairs and even if he has nothing he thinks he migh be able to bluff. 2) His suited cards just quadrupled in value in his mind. 3) His monster is still good. 4) A4o BIATCH!! ANY Two domination!!

River- Well I've made it this fair w/o any resistance, the board has double paired and I'm the man. (I have no problem with the donk thinking like this at all right now b/c you have gone from an agressive preflop capper to a weak tight bitch that he owns.) This is the donks easiest bet. He has a great bluff card to save his any two or suiteds that didn't hit. His monster is still looking good. And now he doesn't think there is a chance you have a Q so his PP bigger than fours is running high.

Hero

Preflop - standard

Flop- I don't mind the call so much b/c the board is not scary, you want an overcall from sb and you can make more by popping the turn (and maybe even get sb to make a bad call b/c he is "committed.") So I will play it like this very often with these players and a ragged board.

Turn- It is now HU and I think waiting till the river to raise is nuts. By not raising you (1) lose a bet that he would have called (he is trying to get us remember and even if he doesn't have a hand look at his mindset above. this is an easy bet and a good drawing card for his suited cards and an easy call for a PP) (2) letting him hit a draw for cheap. You have to charge now or suffer the consequences. A raise here will charge him when he is wrong or take down the pot right there and not let him hit some garbage draw. Letting him play for cheap loses you bets and even worse will lose you pots. Also if he 3-bets you then you can likely narrow down his range of hands and have a better means of evaluating the river.

River A double paired board sucks ass and I think after how you played this a c/c is correct. However had you raised the turn like you should have then I bet out 100% of the time and call a raise. This is too easy of a bluff for the donk and no way I'm laying this down. (this would obviously change if he 3-bet the turn in which case I'd have to do some serious reavaluation, but I doubt he is that aggressive).

Not raising the turn will costs you tons of bets and more importantly tons of pots. Take advantage of the donkey by playing tight/aggressive.

I put dudes who call down with AA on my buddy list everyday of the week. Sniffly weak/tight girls who don't extract any value from their hands are my favorite.

I think you just analyzed this hand too much and lost sight a little of where money is gained and lost.

BTW I would change my answer to a medium PP of 55-99 if I had to do it again, but I see a ton of other hands working as said above [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]