[moot]

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You have 8 outs against K4, 6 outs against 84, and 3 outs against K8. An average of 5.66 outs, about enough to peel the turn if you knew you're behind to specifically 2 pair. Obviously your chances are worse if you include sets in his range, but if I did that my example would be wrong as we wouldn't quite be getting the pot odds to draw on the turn. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I agree in this hand we should call the turn and river for the reasons you mentioned, my example was a hypothetical play against a hypothetical opponent.

How do you do the calculation of the chance you're ahead plus the chance you'll draw out if behind? I've been wondering about that and never got around to working it out.

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Okay, wait, I was wrong, you have more than 3 outs against K4 (up too late; tired), but are you sure it's 8? 3 Q outs, 3 8 outs, which 2 am I missing? The 2 Ks obviously aren't outs, because it boats him. Maybe I'm missing something...

As for the calcution... It's mostly just a very rough estimate. I'm not entirely sure on the math, but I suppose it would be...

Let's say it's the turn, and I may be behind but I may also have the best hand. If behind I figure I have 4 outs. So I'm getting 42 to 4 on the call, or 10.25 to 1. But let's say the pot is only offering me 7 to 1. That's a deficit of 3.25 to 1, so that would mean in order for me to justify a call there would also have to be a 23.5% chance I had the best hand.

I think.

Is that right? I'm might be a bit off in not factoring in things like implied odds, but I think I'm on the right track...