[naphand]

Why the hell would anyone simply call down with AA here?

A very good question, not unexpected. Below is my thought process, one which may well have some serious flaws but a plan is better than no plan. I cannot recall ever calling down with Aces in any spot previously. HU this seems a crime.

First I think we should refer to Harv72b's excellent post above regarding the psychology of Donkys. I agree completely with the type of hand that Donky will play this way and why he will tend not to play his best hands this way (KK/QQ etc.).

Many here have felt that Donky has a big hand, I disagree. I think Donky is "taking a stand". I think he more likely does this with a sooted hand, a sooted A moreso. I believe he slow plays his best hands, but that is just an opinion and not one based on a specific read, rather one based on players primarily met on the 6-max tables.

Donky will not LRR pairs QQ- (for the reasons Harv72b gives). AA is mathematically remote, KK is possible but is only one hand and may not be strong enough for Donky to LRR (the Ace-flop conundrum).

Capped PF with SB (LAG) cold-calling twice. At this point I have opponents on:
(i) Donky - almost anything, but probably at least 1 face card or suited cards. A suited Ace is less likely due to my holding.
(ii) LAG - what does he cold call here? Not AK or a big pair, they would be 3-bet. Any PP or reasonable suiteds like KQ/QJ/JT etc. I think there is a fair chance his hand contains a Q or two face cards. Ace unlikely but poss.

Donky will pair the flop approximately 35% of the time, ditto for LAG. I could raise and kick LAG but this would fold Donky if he has nothing, and clam him up with some weak hand. Qxx rainbow is precisely the kind of flop to steal on because is it likely to have missed everyone, esp. 3-handed.

I do not want to kick players off such a non-threatening board. If they have missed they are drawing very thin indeed. I prefer call hoping SB/Donky put me on AK, I want SB to pay another bet and really hope he has a Q and will raise so I can 3-bet.

SB folds, Turn pairs the bottom card.

A backdoor flush is possible now, HU that is not really a worry for me. I do not consider it likely opponent holds a 4. The board pairing strengthens my hand, if Donky makes 6's or Q's up on the River I will get extra bets. Note it is still 35% Donky has part of the board as no new-value cards have appeared (maybe a few % higher if we factor in the possibility of a backdoor flush).

My belief is Donky has precisely nothing most of the time here, around 65% of the time. If I raise he bullet folds or with a PP calls and calls the River. Other major pairs are now heavily discounted (AA and QQ), which leaves the only possible big hands as AQ/KK. I have already expressed my doubts as to why he would hold these.

Raising the Turn folds a bluff, which is what he has most of the time. If I call he bluffs the River too (he is betting very fast on each street). Do I get extra value raising the Turn? There are almost no hands he will 3 bet with here if I raise (except QQ/X4, and possibly KK). I believe this is a spot where calling the Turn and raising the River is a better play - I get the maximum from his bluffs AND when he has a hand he wants to SD. I call.

I know this interpretation is likely to be questioned, but I welcome any thoughtful responses to counter my logic.

River is the worst card. I see the position as follows: there is a 60% chance Donky has nothing, 5% chance he has the flush, 35% chance he has part of the Flop. The problem now is that the majority of hands that he caught part of the board with (flush, Q, 4) are ahead of me. If I raise he folds the 60% of nothing, but the real problem is will he call my bet with a hand I beat enough times to cover those times he raises with a hand I am toast to?

It is now the majority of the 40% of hands Donky shows down that beat me, IMO. I really cannot bring myself to fold to a 3-bet, because Donky has the perfect bluff board and has already shown he wants to "take me on", so I need to be good when he at least calls 66% of the time. I am no longer sure I am in that position.

Does anyone advocate a raise on the River, and how often do you think opponent calls/raises are you good?