[Catt]

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The point of capping -

I think if you cap, he is very likely to check the turn to you. If he does you paid 1sb for the river, and did 1 of 2 things - You either made him slow down with a hand he was overplaying (he's 37/24, he could very easily have a bare queen), or you made him slow down with a monster and he missed the turn/river bets.

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I don't think we have any reason to believe that he won't lead the turn after a cap. If he's as aggressive as you think he is after a 40-hand statistical read, he is in fact not terribly likely to check to you on the turn. I'm also not thrilled to cap in the hopes of checking through the turn holding my pair of 8's.

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And as an added bonus, if you do hit an 8 or A on the turn or river after doing that, and end up beating his Qx or Q3 - a 37/24/3.5 is very likely to become more aggressive after realizing he made the mistake of giving away free cards like that.

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This benefit requires the parlay of: (1) he doesn't lead the turn; (2) you hit; and (3) he goes nuts with a worse hand -- I think the parlay itself is very unlikely because even overaggro donks slow down when an A hits the board and you come alive or an 8 hits and you come alive and he doesn't have an 8.

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And if he leads out on the turn after a cap you can be 100% sure you are beaten and lay it down easily.

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How can you be 100% sure you're beat if this guy is as aggro as you think? And how easy is it to lay down to this apparently aggro guy getting 8.5 to 1 if you think it is likely that A/8 outs may be good?

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Nobody likes the idea? I think i still stand by it :P

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I don't like it at all against an unknown. I'll save my fancy moves for those players about whom I have a reasonably good idea of their likely response to an unknown.

This hand is played very strangely depending on what he's got, and his stats over a short period are a bit funny and hard to intrepret. With a small chance that I'm good, a decent chance to improve, and not unattractive effective odds to call down, I'd like to see a SD and learn what (1) he calls in the BB with; (2) ck-3bets on the flop with; and (3) takes to showdown on this board. Even if he shows 33 (which seems an almost reasonable hand to play this way) I still learn that he's willing to take a somewhat strange flop line with that hand; most other hands he's holding took a very weird route to SD here and I'd consider that valuable info at the cost of what I see to be not horrible effective odds given my hand.