[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the part of the new 2+2 mentality that I don't agree with with. If your percent chance to win on the river is break even, you of course break even. The problems, however, are numerous.

First, it is nearly impossible to calculate the %chance you have the best hand down to a single digit degree. If you err on the side of calling every time, it only costs you one big bet every time you're wrong. If you err, however, on the side of folding it costs you 16 big bets, every time your wrong. Certainly you're going to be wrong in calling more often then your going to be wrong in folding, but not 16x more.

Second. Expected value depends greatly on repeatablility. Its a number blackjack players love, because the conditions are always repeatable. When deciding to call the flop w/ a flush draw the math is very simple, and the situation repeatable. On the river, however, too many variables affect the sitation for it ever to truly be "repeatable". This is a game of people, and people do weird stuff sometimes, like bet with bottom pair after a turn raise. The EP donk might not ever play this hand this way again, for a variety of reasons. I truly feel that in a lot of river decisions, the value of EV gets distorted a little bit (flame away)...

Third. You can't pay the bills with Sklansky bucks, and they don't help you sleep at night.

In conclusion, on the river, when its close as this hand clearly was, call. And don't feel bad about doing it.

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with what you have said, and it is my point. This was a scenario where I thought i was beat for CERTAIN. But I wasnt. Further, compared to the recent sentiment on this board, I generally have thought people's chance on the river are better than what is suggested. If folding in this hand can cost me a pot then some other scenarios where the concensus has been to fold a 16-1 pot have to be wrong.

Saving bets on the river is just not making up for this stuff....(and I am not talking about overcalling a raiser and a caller on a 4 flush board of some extreme like that which is an easy bet saved).