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Old 07-31-2003, 04:24 PM
ArtVandelay ArtVandelay is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 106
Default My thoughts

I know this sounds funny coming from someone who always advocates betting/raising exactly the pot, but I believe very strongly that the correct play is to raise exactly 150 more. Certainly I'm not thinking about laying down. If he has a better flush then good for him, he gets to double through. I also dislike calling because I'm out of position against an unknown player, and as Guy mentioned there are 17 cards I can see on the turn that put me in a tough spot. Re-raising all-in is sort of a whatever play; you flopped a flush, so good for you, and by pushing maybe you'll get your opponent to pay you off with an overpair plus flush draw or a set or something.

But I think the really creative play, and the correct one, is the following. By pushing you make it hard for him to make a mistake. A better play would be to deny him the chance to make a good decision. So, pretend from his perspective he has the nut flush draw and your two cards are random. Raise to give him exact odds to call assuming he stacks you when he makes the flush and has to fold when he misses. After calling his raise, pot plus his stack (which is smaller than mine) is 405+390 = 795. He will make the flush on the turn 9 times in 47 (remember, we are pretending he assumes nothing about my cards... a small reraise could be a flush or a set or two pair). So if I raise 152.2, rounded to 150 because you must be a multiple of 5, he is unable to make a good decision, which game theory says is optimal (make your opponent indifferent). And the odds are almost identical for when he has a set. Furthermore, in the situations where he has two pair instead of a flush draw or a set, he is more likely to play when I raise 150 rather than 400. Additionally, because I am including another 390 from my stack when he makes the flush, it is consistent to get stacked anyway when the fourth flush card comes.

This is also part of a general thing I've learned in big bet... if you are going to put the money in anyway, arrange the betting to maximize the range of hands your opponent will put all his money in with.

As to why I'm pissed... I came up with this play after I left the table, and I really think it's one of the more creative big bet plays I've ever thought of. I had the idea at the table of raising a small amount to give him exact odds, but I forgot that I could include his stack for implied. I was irrationally afriad of making a bad decision on the turn, and this caused me to abandon what I knew was a good potential line of play. Blinded by my fear I did the brain-dead play of simply pushing every chip in, and my opponent folded, later claiming to have flopped two pair.

ARGH!
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